[SMM Chrome Weekly Review] Market Rally Slows Down, Outlook Remains Optimistic

On September 12, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,450-8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,000-9,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM.

This week, the ferrochrome market performed strongly and steadily,with the overall price increase slowing down WoW.Although downstream demand recovered to some extent, acceptance of high-priced supplies remained to be improved, and ferrochrome producers maintained offers in the range of 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content). Cost side,the immediate smelting cost of ferrochrome decreased slightly this week.On one hand,after the first round of coke price cuts,further pullbacks were still expected, reducing coke costs; on the other hand, chrome ore prices remained high and stable, but after the lifting of vehicle restrictions, transportation capacity gradually recovered,and chrome ore freight costs continued to decline,reducing ore costs to some extent. Influenced by the stable and positive development trend of the ferrochrome market, the chrome ore market currently holds a bullish outlook, and it is expected that chrome ore prices may rise steadily in the future, with ferrochrome costs increasing slightly. Supply and demand side, downstream steel mills maintained high production schedules, and coupled with tight raw material ferrochrome inventory, restocking and stockpiling operations were frequent,leading to a significant recovery in chromium demand.Actual transaction prices moved higher, and market confidence continued to rise. Considering that overseas ferrochrome imports are expected to decrease significantly, and domestic retail ferrochrome supplies are relatively scarce,under conditions of slight supply tightness,ferrochrome prices have strong support, and the ferrochrome market is expected to maintain a strong and stable operating trend in the short term.

Raw material side, on September 12, 2025, the spot offer for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% South African raw ore, it was 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was 58-59 yuan/mtu; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore, it was 59-62 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore, it was 60-61 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate, it was 66-67 yuan/mtu, up 0.5 yuan/mtu MoM; futures side, the offer for 40-42% South African fines was $278-280/mt; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was $345-355/mt, flat MoM.

This week, the chrome ore market was stable with a positive trend,spot prices remained steady, and futures offers continued to rise,but trading activity was more mediocre WoW, mainly characterized by buying the dip, with limited inquiry enthusiasm. Spot side, traders intended to follow the futures rally but were constrained by actual demand. After the lifting of traffic restrictions at Tianjin Port, many producers picked up goods, and chrome ore outflows from warehouses increased 5.56% WoW; however, most were for previously signed orders. Ferrochrome producers, having completed earlier stockpiling, mainly consumed their own inventory, with overall purchase intentions relatively modest. In addition, recent arrivals included low-priced chrome ore at $265, with warehouse inflows surging 197.63% MoM; producers purchasing this batch had limited demand for spot cargo. This week, total chrome ore inventory at ports stood at 3.128 million mt, up 11.83% WoW; Tianjin Port's chrome ore inventory was 2.4949 million mt, rising 14.43% MoM. Domestic low- and micro-carbon ferrochrome demand for high-grade chrome concentrates strengthened. Coupled with Zimbabwe's current peak export season and tight shipping capacity increasing chrome ore freight costs, this supported Zimbabwean chrome ore prices at high levels. South African fine ore prices held steady temporarily, while mainstream lump ore attracted some market attention due to its cost-effectiveness. Futures side, mid-week overseas miners' offers for South African 40-42% chrome ore rose another $4 to $279/mt. The upward trend remained mild, mainly pressured by potential high supply sustaining price suppression. However, ferrochrome's sharp rise stimulated most chrome ore traders to remain bullish on the market outlook. Combined with continuous increases in ferrochrome planned production, which creates rigid demand for chrome ore, the chrome ore market is expected to operate strongly and steadily in the short term.